Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary August 28, 2023 The Markets Becalmed. The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy. When the government finally ended the policy earlier this year, many economists anticipated that pent-up consumer demand would refill China’s economic sails, lifting the global economy, reported Malcolm Scott of Bloomberg. Instead, China’s economy i...

Weekly Market Commentary August 21, 2023 The Markets Higher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets. After more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, the “free money” era – a time when people and businesses could borrow money and repay it with very low (or no) interest – may be over. Last year, rising inflation caused the Fed to begin raising the feder...

Weekly Market Commentary August 14, 2023 The Markets Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator. After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month. The preliminary August reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 71.2. That’s slightly below July’s reading, although it’s up 22.3 percent year-over-year, and up...

Weekly Market Commentary August 07, 2023 The Markets An unwelcome surprise. Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+. It was the second rating agency to downgrade U.S. Treasuries; Standard & Poor’s cut its rating to AA+ in 2011, reported Benjamin Purvis and Simon Kennedy of Bloomberg. The decision to lower the rating wa...

Weekly Market Commentary July 31, 2023 The Markets Central bank palooza! While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) led things off last Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Friday. Here’s what happened: The Fed continued to pl...

Weekly Market Commentary July 24, 2023 The Markets Better than expected. In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets. Survey participants were generally a gloomy group. Seventy percent believed the United States stock market would move lower in 2023, and most indicated the drop would happen in the latter half of the year...

Weekly Market Commentary July 17, 2023 The Markets Disinflation was in the air! To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of inflation. For example, last week we learned that: Inflation fell to a two year low in June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)showed that prices rose just 3 percent from June 2022 throu...

Weekly Market Commentary July 10, 2023 The Markets Markets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue. Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for clues about whether the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting or leave the rate unchanged, reported Megan Leonhardt of Barron’s. The Fed has been aggressively raising the r...

Weekly Market Commentary July 3, 2023 The Markets Showing remarkable resilience. Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors. U.S. stock markets moved higher amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle might be near an end. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ent...

Weekly Market Commentary June 26, 2023 The Markets The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Express is traveling fast. Investors are enthusiastic about AI. Late last year, an AI research lab introduced a chatbot that could answer questions – and people were enthralled. Within two months of its introduction, more than 100 million people had engaged with the technology, reported David Curry of Business of A...