Weekly Market Commentary September 03, 2024 The Markets After gyrating wildly throughout the month, major U.S. stock indexes finished August higher. Despite a lot of uncertainty and some dramatic ups and downs, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 2.3 percent in August, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8 percent to close at a record high. It was the fourth consecutive...
Weekly Market Commentary August 26, 2024 The Markets The near future is more predictable than the distant future. Last year, the St. Louis Federal Reserve explored the accuracy of recession forecasts. They found that short-term predictions about whether there would be a recession in the subsequent quarter were fairly accurate. However, projections for economic growth a year ahead were far less acc...
Weekly Market Commentary August 05, 2024 The Markets Stock markets swelled and dropped like waves at the Olympic surfing competition in Tahiti. It is often said that markets hate uncertainty. There was a lot of uncertainty last week, and it showed. “The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index soared 3 [percent] on Wednesday and then retreated almost that much on Thursday, before paring the declin...
Weekly Market Commentary July 29, 2024 The Markets Americans may be witnessing something remarkable. Earlier this year, we had the relatively rare opportunity to view a total solar eclipse – when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth, blocking the sun completely – as it crossed numerous states. Now, we may see the United States’ economy experience a soft landing – when the Federal Reserve...
Weekly Market Commentary July 22, 2024 The Markets The rate cut stars are aligning. For the last year, borrowing costs in the United States have remained relatively high as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) waited for economic data to show that inflation was on track to reach the Fed’s two percent target. Now, we may finally be on the cusp of lower rates. “The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge has ease...
Weekly Market Commentary July 15, 2024 The Markets Will deflation continue? In May, Pew Research asked Americans about the biggest problems facing our nation. The top three answers were: Inflation; The ability of Democrats and Republicans to work together; and The affordability of health care. Last week, there was some good news about the first issue. Inflation became deflation as the Consumer Pri...
Weekly Market Commentary July 08, 2024 The Markets Despite some volatility, stock markets have been buoyant in 2024. Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), optimism about inflation, and expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to lower rates this year have helped global and U.S. stock markets, overall, push higher in 2024. Share prices increased more slowly in the...
Weekly Market Commentary July 01, 2024 The Markets Some good news and some volatility. Last week was a mixed bag as investors weighed positive economic news against concerns that stock prices for some chipmakers may not be sustainable. Here are the highlights: Inflation slowed to zero. On Friday, one of the Fed’s favored measures of inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – s...
Weekly Market Commentary June 24, 2024 The Markets Are we at an inflection point? The transition to renewable energy has been moving forward and may be reaching an inflection point. In 2023, global renewable energy capacity increased by almost 50 percent, reported the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewable capacity reached all-time highs in the United States, Europe and Brazil. However, the...
Weekly Market Commentary June 17, 2024 The Markets Inflation is lower – and so are some retail prices. There was a lot of good news last week about the cost of products and services in the United States. First, inflation is slowing down. For the second month in a row, inflation slowed. Headline inflation was 3.3 percent year over year, lower than April’s 3.4 percent. In May, prices for gasoline an...